Buy to let is Back comes the headline in the Landlord and BTL blog at Property Hawk, after the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors revealed a 2% increase in the number of surveyors that reported an increase rather than a fall in buy-to-let demand in the three months to September.

This follows a report last week from the Association of Residential Lettings Agents, which said that buy to let landlords were buying again, after it found an increase in the average number of properties they own.

The RICS report would seem to confirm ARLA's conclusion, until you dig a little deeper:

The RICS housing market survey -- the subject of the Property Hawk post -- has found a 2% increase in demand for buy to let property in the 3 months ending September. This is not the same as an increase in sales, or rather an increase in buying.

Another thing is the fact that ARLA recorded that landlords owned an average of 6.4 properties in Mar, increasing to 7.5 in June, and then decreasing again to 7.0 in the 3months to September -- the period that RICS said demand had risen.

Out of the 2, the better data comes from RICS. This is because if you look at the ARLA survey, in June when it said landlords owned an average 6.4 properties, it said that 375 people had answered the question. In June, when the average ownership increased to 7.5, 428 people had answered the question, and in September when average ownership was down again to 7.0, 363 people had answered the question.

It could be that the increased number in June made the survey more accurate, or it could be that most of the additional 53 people who answered owned substantially more than 7 properties and that pushed up the figure, we just don't know. As everyone who has ever studied anything knows, when you want to determine a change in one variable, all other variables must be kept constant throughout the series.

Thus ARLA's data is inherently unreliable. However, as approximately the same number of people answered in Mar and September, we can assume that the average number of properties owned by buy to let landlords increased from 6.4 to 7.0 between March and September. However, as was well covered in this article, this could be because of the spree on auction buying earlier in the year, though there were substantial numbers of new investors buying at those auctions according to reports.

Like I said, the more accurate data comes from RICS, if RICS say that demand from buy to let'ters increased in the three months to September then it more than likely did. I say this partly because it goes with what I know from outside sources, the recent price rises has optimists believing that the market has bottomed and they are getting out there looking for bargains. However, most of the bargains are currently still to be found at auctions, which are not covered by the RICS survey.

If anyone knows of a comprehensive source of information on auction sales, and the prevalence of buy to let landlords purchasing at auction please post it here in the comments. Until then, we just have to go with what we have, which is enough to suggest but not to irrefutably confirm that buy to let landlords are actively beginning to look at increasing their portfolio.

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The latest reports on the London housing market are of massively increasing demand fuelled by bonus fever. Not by people spending their bonuses, but of people buying houses in advance of the bonuses they will receive.

The Times ran an article on Monday past on how Prime London properties (£1m plus) in "bankers enclaves" are selling for prices in excess of prices seen at the peak of the boom in 2007, as banker's enter sealed bidding wars with each other and wealthy foreigners for the best properties. The reports are coming from Knight Frank, the global estate agency with a vested interest in London's prime market.

Have we learnt nothing? If we have seen the last of price drops in the UK it is only just and by extreme luck, because houses are still grossly overvalued according to impartial analysis, and still mostly unaffordable to the largest demand base of first time buyers. But we are all quick to jump and shout about how brilliant it is that these houses are selling for £5m+.

There is very little to justify these houses to hold such a value, having been worth less than a million only a few years ago. Their price is being determined by the wealth of London bankers rather than the value of the property and such cycles are only ever going to lead us into more crashes.

The bank's quick return to such huge bonuses has sparked anger in the press and the government. There is even talk of a windfall tax on the big banks.

Something like a windfall tax is the only way to stop the banks from giving out such huge payments, because the banks have to be competitive about what they pay the best investors, or face losing them.

The government stopped RBS from giving bonuses last year, and they lost staff. Trouble is they started offering multi-million Pound payments to lure the best bankers to come and work for them instead. If a windfall tax is levied on all banks then it would even the playing field and stop bonuses equally across all banks.

However, the financial services sector accounts for about 15% of UK GDP, and the government will not want to damage it too much either. We will find out in the pre-budget speech, due in the next few weeks.

I just wish that something could be done to regulate house prices at the same time. But should the prices of lavish properties in such areas really be regulated? How do you regulate a sought after property? If multiple wealthy buyers want the same property it is always going to mean a bidding war. We can't ask the seller to toss a coin. No, it does look like regulating the banking industry is where my anger will have to be channelled after all.

Across the rest of the market, demand is currently increasing. Today the British bankers Association revealed another rise in mortgage lending in September. Again it was massively higher than September last year, but lower than the peak in 2007. None the less, people are getting good prices for their homes at the moment. If you want to sell your house you can do so with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

Assetz have done it again. In the company blog they have said that unemployment won't affect house prices.

The government has admitted that private sector unemployment is not going to be as bad as first thought, so "private sector unemployment is not going to affect house prices," they assert in a post on the company blog.

They then go on to explain how the result of the election will decide how many people are left unemployed by government spending cuts, possible putting the total jobless number up to 3.75million.

They don't believe it will be this high, because they say the government will choose other methods of cutting spending, anybody fancy the end of Quangos for example ? Assetz asks.

But even if the government does cut a million jobs, this still won't affect house prices, because private sector recruitment will increase to balance the effect, and also because it won't outweigh the positive effects of significant lack of supply.

Yes, the massive supply shortages are propping up prices, but surely they cannot expect that to keep prices rising forever. What everyone who wants a housing market recovery wants is a massive increase in demand, and in transactions.

For that to happen we need supply to increase so there is a home suitable and affordable for everyone. At any rate if prices keep increasing, and if there is a big increase in demand, more people will be selling their house and this will tip the supply balance. You just cannot have a positive housing market based on what can only be considered a negative keeping price growth positive.

Of course, the biggest negative is the constricted mortgage market, until that changes it is only likely to be weak supply that is capable of pushing prices up.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

The UK housing market is "past the worst" according to foreign exchange company Moneycorp. In an interview with Write About Property, David Kerns, dealing manager in the Moneycorp private division, said:

"Housing, data at the moment would certainly confirm that the UK housing sector is, certainly past its worst, and we've seen about 5-6 months now of growth in UK housing."

His statements come just days after the government index run by the Department of Communities and Local Government came out showing a 0.5% increase on the month of August, and a 2.7% increase on the quarter.

The interviewer, Liam Bailey was silent for the first time in nearly the whole interview. This is because, Liam believes like we do here at Zungalow that there is a second dip on the horizon for UK house prices.

That is, we did believe it, but every time an index that we trust; an index with no commercial interest in creating positive sentiment comes out showing continued growth in UK house prices, we doubt ourselves just a little bit more.

I mean, David Kerns sounds old enough to have analysed more than the current recession, and he has his finger on the pulse of the shocking employment figures the same as we do, but he truly thinks the housing market is past its worst, strongly enough to base currency dealing decisions on it.

That said, as Kerns admitted in the interview: housing is not crucial to making forex calculations at the moment, because all the other data is and will keep Sterling low, and things like rising unemployment and quantitative easing need to be stopped before Sterling can really grow. So he has no reason to analyse the housing market at the same lengths as we have and will continue to.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

The UK housing market is "past the worst" according to foreign exchange company Moneycorp. In an interview with Write About Property, David Kerns, dealing manager in the Moneycorp private division, said:

"Housing, data at the moment would certainly confirm that the UK housing sector is, certainly past its worst, and we've seen about 5-6 months now of growth in UK housing."

His statements come just days after the government index run by the Department of Communities and Local Government came out showing a 0.5% increase on the month of August, and a 2.7% increase on the quarter.

The interviewer, Liam Bailey was silent for the first time in nearly the whole interview. This is because, Liam believes like we do here at Zungalow that there is a second dip on the horizon for UK house prices.

That is, we did believe it, but every time an index that we trust; an index with no commercial interest in creating positive sentiment comes out showing continued growth in UK house prices, we doubt ourselves just a little bit more.

I mean, David Kerns sounds old enough to have analysed more than the current recession, and he has his finger on the pulse of the shocking employment figures the same as we do, but he truly thinks the housing market is past its worst, strongly enough to base currency dealing decisions on it.

That said, as Kerns admitted in the interview: housing is not crucial to making forex calculations at the moment, because all the other data is and will keep Sterling low, and things like rising unemployment and quantitative easing need to be stopped before Sterling can really grow. So he has no reason to analyse the housing market at the same lengths as we have and will continue to.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

The Financial Times index, one of the most impartial and arguably most accurate indices of UK house prices recorded a 0.6% increase in house prices in September. UK house prices are now 5.6% lower than they were at this time last year, and at similar levels to August 2006.

The FT index is compiled by Acadametrics, which said that this, the fifth consecutive monthly rise in house prices clearly indicates a recovery, but that things could still turnaround at any minute. Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics said:

“Consumer confidence is recovering and there are indications that mortgage supply has stabilised and might increase along with the number of properties coming to market and the transactions that follow. However, all this is delicately balanced. The government and the Bank must continue to make the right calls to avoid disrupting this fragile recovery and it is simply too soon to say the course going forward is set.”

The Acadametrics/FT index is a good one to follow, because it is not based on mortgage approvals like those of Nationwide and Halifax, it is based on actual transactions recorded in the Land Registry, but it is better than the Land Registry index because it continually adds the most recent sales recorded at the Registry, and the index is constantly updated with the changes.

For that reason, we can look at this and say that the Land Registry index for September will show prices rising again after the fall in August. I have been saying since the Land Registry index came out in August that it wasn't a blip, it was the start of the second dip, bla bla bla. Looks like I was wrong.

However, with unemployment still rising, the mortgage market still heavily restricted and supply alone holding up a market in which first time buyers still can't afford to buy, I still think a second dip is inevitable in the short term.

Like this post, Subscribe to our feed. If you want to sell your house while prices are rising, do so with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

The Halifax released the figures from its house price index in September and said that house prices had risen 1.7% on the month leaving them7.4% lower than this time last year. The news came just a few days after Nationwide released their September figures of a 0.9% rise on the month, and the average house price now back to what it was last September. The Land Registry however, recently revealed their figures for August, in which they said house prices had fallen 0.1% on the month, but that the rate of annual decline had slowed.

The Land Registry index only covers England and Wales, but as its prices come from completed sales, whereas the Nationwide and Halifax are based on mortgage approvals, the Land Registry is agreed to be the most accurate.

However, because the Land Registry is behind the other indices, analysts (which means just about the whole country) are wondering whether the Land Registry's drop in prices was just a blip against the run of rises; 5 consecutive months according to Nationwide, and 3 consecutive according to Halifax.

I was quoted in an article yesterday on Write About Property, i gave the following advice to potential sellers:

"Prices have fallen drastically on UK property there is no question about that. Nor is there any question about the fact that it will likely be 2-5 years before houses regain the value they held in the beginning of 2007.

"However, all houses have fallen in value, so you will save on your next home what you lost on the sale of your old one. But now, if you sell your house to first time buyers, you can take solace in the fact that, yes, you lost money but you did so voluntarily to help a first time buyer get onto the property ladder."

Nationwide issued its house price index for September yesterday. It showed that house prices rose on average 0.9% between August and September. The tri-monthly measure, which is less volatile and widely regarded as the more accurate short term indicator rose from a growth of 3.3% in the 3 months ending August, to a growth of 3.8% in the 3 months ending September.

This is the fifth monthly rise recorded by the Nationwide, and the lender now has the average UK house price at the same as it was in September last year -- before the catastrophic collapse of Lehman Brothers.

None the less, this still does not signal the end of the crisis, because -- as even Nationwide acknowledge -- transactions are still far too low to support such growth, leaving it based solely on the drastic shortage of housing supply.

Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist said:

"The further increase in house prices is very much consistent with improvements in a broad range of economic and financial indicators over the last few months, all of which suggest that the most intense phase of the recession and financial crisis has probably passed. However, given that the housing market still faces considerable headwinds in the form of high unemployment, restrictive credit conditions and an impending withdrawal of the stamp duty holiday, it would be surprising to see house prices continuing to increase at the very strong rate seen in recent months."

But as we continue to say, house prices make no difference to people who want to sell their house, because you will save what you lose on the house you buy, which will also have lost value. Sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

As you may know, house prices fell in August according to the Land Registry index. Mortgage approvals also fell in August. We have warned for some time on this blog that the price rises we were seeing in the past few months did not represent a bottom in the market, and now it looks like we are finally going to be proved right.

The house price rise was easy to brush aside, because we knew it was based on short-supply in only a few areas. However, the rising mortgage approvals growing month on month and even showing massive hikes on last year's figure was hard to argue with -- even though the rises still left mortgage approvals a lot lower than you would expect to find in a market where prices are rising.

Now, the reality that we are facing is this: The Land Registry says prices fell in August, but its index is lagged by 2-3 months. That means that house prices were struggling even when mortgage approvals were rising.

Now that things are heading south again we say: buckle up, this is the start of the second dip we have been forecasting for some time, and we are in for some pretty sharp house price reductions in the coming months.

This doesn't mean that you can't sell your house. As we have said on this blog before, all houses are falling in value, so by the time you sell your house at a reduced price, and buy your new house at a similarly reduced price, you will be in about the same boat as you would in 2007.

You may have read my comments that I made on Write About Property yesterday, on predicting the future of UK house prices.

In it, I agreed with the author of the post Liam Bailey's opinion, that UK house prices still haven't stopped falling, there is still too many things capable of pulling prices down: constricted mortgage market, unemployment and foreclosures are the big three, but there is also vendor realism and negative equity affecting thousands.

When I was talking to Liam he told me about a new article he is planning to write, based on a survey of landlords about their forecasts for UK house prices. So far, of the responses he has received so far, many of the UK's buy to let landlords think that house prices have some way to fall yet, with forecasts ranging from next Easter to 2014 for when the recovery will start.

Of course if you listen to the industry bulls the recovery is well underway. As Liam covered, the major indices certainly support this view; all of them are showing house prices rising on a monthly basis for most of this year, and according to Nationwide prices are now just 2.1% lower than they were a year ago.

Here at Zungalow, we don't really care what house prices do because it should never stop people from selling their house. This is because -- as we have pointed out in previous posts -- all house prices are falling. So, while your house will sell for less, you can buy your next house for less as well, and end up coming out of the deal exactly the same financially.

Zungalow allows you to sell your house for £29 per year, at that price can you afford not to give it a go with Zungalow.