Assetz Say Unemployment Can't Affect House Prices because of Supply Shortage, What?

by RichardM 17. October 2009 10:23
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Assetz have done it again. In the company blog they have said that unemployment won't affect house prices.

The government has admitted that private sector unemployment is not going to be as bad as first thought, so "private sector unemployment is not going to affect house prices," they assert in a post on the company blog.

They then go on to explain how the result of the election will decide how many people are left unemployed by government spending cuts, possible putting the total jobless number up to 3.75million.

They don't believe it will be this high, because they say the government will choose other methods of cutting spending, anybody fancy the end of Quangos for example ? Assetz asks.

But even if the government does cut a million jobs, this still won't affect house prices, because private sector recruitment will increase to balance the effect, and also because it won't outweigh the positive effects of significant lack of supply.

Yes, the massive supply shortages are propping up prices, but surely they cannot expect that to keep prices rising forever. What everyone who wants a housing market recovery wants is a massive increase in demand, and in transactions.

For that to happen we need supply to increase so there is a home suitable and affordable for everyone. At any rate if prices keep increasing, and if there is a big increase in demand, more people will be selling their house and this will tip the supply balance. You just cannot have a positive housing market based on what can only be considered a negative keeping price growth positive.

Of course, the biggest negative is the constricted mortgage market, until that changes it is only likely to be weak supply that is capable of pushing prices up.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

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Govt. Figures Show House Price Decline Slowing: Bottom? Not Yet I'm Afraid

by RichardM 12. May 2009 17:38

The Department of Communities and Local Government (DCLG) house price index has showed that the rate of decline in UK house prices slowed in March. This comes after the latest release of the Land Registry index showed the rate of decline slowing in March, and Halifax and Nationwide a slowing decline for April.

Year on year prices were down 13.6% in March, and fell 3.8% in Q1 this year, compared to a 6.4% fall the previous quarter.

A slowing rate of decline is not, in itself, a sign that we are nearing the bottom. After over a year of the worst house price crash the UK has ever seen it is logical that the decline would slow. Spring is traditionally a good time for the housing market, from the low point we are at that translates to a less bad time.

The fundamentals that must be in place before the market will bottom have not been brought any closer:

There are still very few buyers around:
will be helped by recovery in the wider economy and greater mortgage availability.
Vendors are still unrealistic:
will likely be helped by increased buyer numbers
Homes still not affordable for first time buyers:
Will only be helped by prices falling further and by better (higher LTV) mortgage products for first time buyers.

The whole thing is a cycle, the first thing we need is for the recovery of the UK economy as a whole to begin. This will stave off rising unemployment, save jobs, reduce the fear mentality of those in at- risk industries (most people), and create new jobs. All in all more jobs and more job security means more people looking to buy houses.

More people looking to buy houses will increase vendor realism, or bring them to realisation quicker, because there will be no more excuses; the buyers are there, it is only there price that is stopping them from achieving a sale. This will go the same for mortgage lenders, more buyers and/or more realistic vendors will put pressure on the lenders to open up the market or risk snuffing out the recovery they pushed so hard for.

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House Prices | UK House Prices | UK Housing Market | UK Property

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