Buy to let is Back comes the headline in the Landlord and BTL blog at Property Hawk, after the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors revealed a 2% increase in the number of surveyors that reported an increase rather than a fall in buy-to-let demand in the three months to September.

This follows a report last week from the Association of Residential Lettings Agents, which said that buy to let landlords were buying again, after it found an increase in the average number of properties they own.

The RICS report would seem to confirm ARLA's conclusion, until you dig a little deeper:

The RICS housing market survey -- the subject of the Property Hawk post -- has found a 2% increase in demand for buy to let property in the 3 months ending September. This is not the same as an increase in sales, or rather an increase in buying.

Another thing is the fact that ARLA recorded that landlords owned an average of 6.4 properties in Mar, increasing to 7.5 in June, and then decreasing again to 7.0 in the 3months to September -- the period that RICS said demand had risen.

Out of the 2, the better data comes from RICS. This is because if you look at the ARLA survey, in June when it said landlords owned an average 6.4 properties, it said that 375 people had answered the question. In June, when the average ownership increased to 7.5, 428 people had answered the question, and in September when average ownership was down again to 7.0, 363 people had answered the question.

It could be that the increased number in June made the survey more accurate, or it could be that most of the additional 53 people who answered owned substantially more than 7 properties and that pushed up the figure, we just don't know. As everyone who has ever studied anything knows, when you want to determine a change in one variable, all other variables must be kept constant throughout the series.

Thus ARLA's data is inherently unreliable. However, as approximately the same number of people answered in Mar and September, we can assume that the average number of properties owned by buy to let landlords increased from 6.4 to 7.0 between March and September. However, as was well covered in this article, this could be because of the spree on auction buying earlier in the year, though there were substantial numbers of new investors buying at those auctions according to reports.

Like I said, the more accurate data comes from RICS, if RICS say that demand from buy to let'ters increased in the three months to September then it more than likely did. I say this partly because it goes with what I know from outside sources, the recent price rises has optimists believing that the market has bottomed and they are getting out there looking for bargains. However, most of the bargains are currently still to be found at auctions, which are not covered by the RICS survey.

If anyone knows of a comprehensive source of information on auction sales, and the prevalence of buy to let landlords purchasing at auction please post it here in the comments. Until then, we just have to go with what we have, which is enough to suggest but not to irrefutably confirm that buy to let landlords are actively beginning to look at increasing their portfolio.

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Assetz have done it again. In the company blog they have said that unemployment won't affect house prices.

The government has admitted that private sector unemployment is not going to be as bad as first thought, so "private sector unemployment is not going to affect house prices," they assert in a post on the company blog.

They then go on to explain how the result of the election will decide how many people are left unemployed by government spending cuts, possible putting the total jobless number up to 3.75million.

They don't believe it will be this high, because they say the government will choose other methods of cutting spending, anybody fancy the end of Quangos for example ? Assetz asks.

But even if the government does cut a million jobs, this still won't affect house prices, because private sector recruitment will increase to balance the effect, and also because it won't outweigh the positive effects of significant lack of supply.

Yes, the massive supply shortages are propping up prices, but surely they cannot expect that to keep prices rising forever. What everyone who wants a housing market recovery wants is a massive increase in demand, and in transactions.

For that to happen we need supply to increase so there is a home suitable and affordable for everyone. At any rate if prices keep increasing, and if there is a big increase in demand, more people will be selling their house and this will tip the supply balance. You just cannot have a positive housing market based on what can only be considered a negative keeping price growth positive.

Of course, the biggest negative is the constricted mortgage market, until that changes it is only likely to be weak supply that is capable of pushing prices up.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

The Halifax released the figures from its house price index in September and said that house prices had risen 1.7% on the month leaving them7.4% lower than this time last year. The news came just a few days after Nationwide released their September figures of a 0.9% rise on the month, and the average house price now back to what it was last September. The Land Registry however, recently revealed their figures for August, in which they said house prices had fallen 0.1% on the month, but that the rate of annual decline had slowed.

The Land Registry index only covers England and Wales, but as its prices come from completed sales, whereas the Nationwide and Halifax are based on mortgage approvals, the Land Registry is agreed to be the most accurate.

However, because the Land Registry is behind the other indices, analysts (which means just about the whole country) are wondering whether the Land Registry's drop in prices was just a blip against the run of rises; 5 consecutive months according to Nationwide, and 3 consecutive according to Halifax.

I was quoted in an article yesterday on Write About Property, i gave the following advice to potential sellers:

"Prices have fallen drastically on UK property there is no question about that. Nor is there any question about the fact that it will likely be 2-5 years before houses regain the value they held in the beginning of 2007.

"However, all houses have fallen in value, so you will save on your next home what you lost on the sale of your old one. But now, if you sell your house to first time buyers, you can take solace in the fact that, yes, you lost money but you did so voluntarily to help a first time buyer get onto the property ladder."

As you may know, house prices fell in August according to the Land Registry index. Mortgage approvals also fell in August. We have warned for some time on this blog that the price rises we were seeing in the past few months did not represent a bottom in the market, and now it looks like we are finally going to be proved right.

The house price rise was easy to brush aside, because we knew it was based on short-supply in only a few areas. However, the rising mortgage approvals growing month on month and even showing massive hikes on last year's figure was hard to argue with -- even though the rises still left mortgage approvals a lot lower than you would expect to find in a market where prices are rising.

Now, the reality that we are facing is this: The Land Registry says prices fell in August, but its index is lagged by 2-3 months. That means that house prices were struggling even when mortgage approvals were rising.

Now that things are heading south again we say: buckle up, this is the start of the second dip we have been forecasting for some time, and we are in for some pretty sharp house price reductions in the coming months.

This doesn't mean that you can't sell your house. As we have said on this blog before, all houses are falling in value, so by the time you sell your house at a reduced price, and buy your new house at a similarly reduced price, you will be in about the same boat as you would in 2007.

You may have read my comments that I made on Write About Property yesterday, on predicting the future of UK house prices.

In it, I agreed with the author of the post Liam Bailey's opinion, that UK house prices still haven't stopped falling, there is still too many things capable of pulling prices down: constricted mortgage market, unemployment and foreclosures are the big three, but there is also vendor realism and negative equity affecting thousands.

When I was talking to Liam he told me about a new article he is planning to write, based on a survey of landlords about their forecasts for UK house prices. So far, of the responses he has received so far, many of the UK's buy to let landlords think that house prices have some way to fall yet, with forecasts ranging from next Easter to 2014 for when the recovery will start.

Of course if you listen to the industry bulls the recovery is well underway. As Liam covered, the major indices certainly support this view; all of them are showing house prices rising on a monthly basis for most of this year, and according to Nationwide prices are now just 2.1% lower than they were a year ago.

Here at Zungalow, we don't really care what house prices do because it should never stop people from selling their house. This is because -- as we have pointed out in previous posts -- all house prices are falling. So, while your house will sell for less, you can buy your next house for less as well, and end up coming out of the deal exactly the same financially.

Zungalow allows you to sell your house for £29 per year, at that price can you afford not to give it a go with Zungalow.

In August, the average UK house price was £112 higher than in December 2008, meaning that house prices have now regained anything the lost in the falls of the first quarter, according to the latest release of the Halifax house price index.

The average price of a UK house was 0.8% higher in August than in July. This was the second consecutive monthly rise recorded by the Halifax, and the fourth rise in the last 8 months. The rise brought the tri-monthly measure (widely regarded as the more-accurate because it is less volatile) to a rise of 1.7%, and the annual measure to a fall of 10.1% -- the lowest since July 2008.

"Demand for housing has increased since the start of the year due to better affordability and low interest rates. This, together with low levels of property available for sale, has boosted house prices over the last few months," said Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis.

With every month that house prices continue to rise, confidence builds and more and more people are willing to put their voice behind this being the start of a slow and painful recovery in UK house prices.

Whether it is or not; find out how you can do just as well in a down market as you can during boom times.

The UK housing market has bottomed, price falls have finished, and price growth, though slow will return next year. That is according to a survey of 30 analysts conducted by Reuters, who said that prices will end the year slightly lower than they started it, grow by 0.5% next year, and 2.5% the year after.

The UK is absolutely obsessed by house prices, but it is all much of a much-ness; if you have the right attitude you can do just as well out of the current housing market as you could in 2006.

There are people who are refusing to sell their houses because they won't get the peak price for it, even if they bought the house years before and could still make a profit at a 30% discount on peak, they are sitting on it, depressing and waiting for better days.

The fact of the matter is, house prices are relative. That is to say, all houses are falling in value, so by the time you sell up, remortgage and buy the bigger house your family needs, you will end up paying the same amount in mortgage repayments as you would at the peak in 2007.

Because, while you would have got a lot more for your house then, the bigger house would have been a lot more expensive also, and vice versa, now, the bigger house is a lot cheaper. And the same goes for people who want to downsize; yes, they lose out on the sale, but the smaller house will also be cheaper and they will come away with the same amount (approximately) left over.

So, in answer to the question: is now the time to sell your house? Yes, now is the time to sell your house, because it is no different to any other time.

By Liam Bailey

Right, so let me start at the beginning.

Firstly, I believe that, though the collapse of the global financial infrastructure was the catalyst, that this house price correction is like any other in the fact that it has gone the way it has because homes became overvalued and unaffordable for first time buyers.

Some people believe that house prices will fall until the average house price is 3.8 times the average salary. I am not one of those people. I believe that this correction will go much the same way as the last correction (late 80s early 90s) and overshoot the long-term averages on the way down.

House prices have been rising for the past few months. The rises are not a true reflection of the market. Short-supply of quality homes in certain areas is causing those properties that are available to be sold for prices similar to those seen at the 2007 peak, and these sales, in a measure of low transaction volumes are enough to distort the overall picture.

Prices are still falling in most places. And they will continue to do so until transaction volumes pick up, so the true question is, when will transaction volumes pick up. There are three hurdles keeping transaction levels down.

1. The Economy/Unemployment

   Though there have been signs lately that we are past the worst of the recession, unemployment is still rising, and is expected to continue doing so for quite some time yet. Until less people are in fear of their jobs or already jobless there won't be sufficient demand for a revival in transaction volumes.

2. Mortgage availability:

   Banks are still under pressure to improve their balance sheets which means making more money from fewer loans. To consumers this means poor deals are on offer to anone who has less than a quarter of the house price to put down as a deposit, and the best deals go to those with deposits of 40% or more

3. Vendor Realism:

   It is a fact that short supply is driving up prices in some areas. But across the UK out of the homes that are for sale, a high percentage of those homes are at prices similar to those seen at peak. Thus, actual saleable stock, that is houses that people will actually buy is short across the country. The correction can't end until the gap between what buyers are willing to pay, and sellers willing to accept closes. This can't happen until more vendors are realistic about the market.

When the global economy has recovered, and stock markets and investments around the world are once again lucrative, when UK consumers are spending and borrowing healthily again, the banks will be making money sufficient that tight mortgage policies are not the only way to improve their balance sheets.

That will take care of number 1, and as a result better mortgages will become available to the masses, which will take care of number 2. This will then result in number 3 resolving itself, because demand will begin to increase and vendors will realise that it is only their price that is preventing the sale.

But as this is a forecast, what you really want to know then is, when do I think the global recovery will happen?

As I said, there are clear signs that the UK is past the worst of the recession, and there are similar signs that the recessionary down-track is passed and we are currently on the way back up, things like: GDP contractions of a lot less than previous quarters, retail sales up (in the EU), Europe's biggest two economies emerging from recession, and more.

I think that the global recovery will be strong in Q3 of next year, and that UK unemployment will also have turned around by this point. It will take time for this to change the attitudes of consumers and the banks, but banks should be more relaxed about their lending, and demand to buy property will start to increase by Q2 2011.

I therefore think that the UK housing market will bottom between quarters 2 and 3 of 2011. Unlike other commentators I think that price growth will be quite brisk in the subsequent few years.

Liam Bailey is a well known property commentator and director of sector specialist SEO copywriting company Write About Property, which provides SEO copywriting services for some of the biggest names in the property industry.

The Land Registry has just released its data on UK house prices in July.

Not surprisingly in the current climate, the Land Registry too has recorded an increase on a monthly basis, in fact the largest increase since 2004 of 1.7%. This has brought the annual rate of decline down to 11.7%.

The Land Registry house price index is widely regarded as the most accurate record of house prices in England and Wales, is showing the annual decline still much faster than the 6.2% recorded by Nationwide last month.

The Land Registry index also showed that there were on average 35,348 property transactions per month between February and May, just over half the 61,743 recorded per month in the same period last year.

As transactions had already plummeted last year, this proves beyond a shadow of a doubt (as far as I'm concerned) that the reason behind the price rises of the moment is not increased transactions because of low interest rates, as Nationwide said yesterday, but the low supplies of saleable stock. (See yesterday's post on the Nationwide index for August).

This article that I have just read in The Times is about the best example I've seen so far to show the topsy-turvy world of the current UK housing market.

The article is on how now is the time to sell your house because you stand a good chance of getting a good price, because low-stock levels mean little competition from other sellers. But it is also noted in the article that if supply increases massively it will likely drive prices down yet again.

So if everyone follows the advice of those in the article, then everyone will be knackered for getting a good price. The irony could be that, by printing this article The Times have given the game away.

We have been warning on this blog for many months now, that a rapid increase in supply would be detrimental to the future of UK house prices, and how the currently positive news threatened to make that a reality. However, it does seem that there have been a few shrewd people who have timed it just right in their area and got an extremely good price for their house.

If you do decide to follow the advice of the Times interviewees and check out housing supply and get started about selling your house, Zungalow offers a fantastic property advertising package for just £29 per year. Such a low price perhaps takes the risk out of sticking your toe into the house selling water.