Is UK Housing Past Its Worst? Even we are starting to think it might be, or...

by RichardM 15. October 2009 21:45

The UK housing market is "past the worst" according to foreign exchange company Moneycorp. In an interview with Write About Property, David Kerns, dealing manager in the Moneycorp private division, said:

"Housing, data at the moment would certainly confirm that the UK housing sector is, certainly past its worst, and we've seen about 5-6 months now of growth in UK housing."

His statements come just days after the government index run by the Department of Communities and Local Government came out showing a 0.5% increase on the month of August, and a 2.7% increase on the quarter.

The interviewer, Liam Bailey was silent for the first time in nearly the whole interview. This is because, Liam believes like we do here at Zungalow that there is a second dip on the horizon for UK house prices.

That is, we did believe it, but every time an index that we trust; an index with no commercial interest in creating positive sentiment comes out showing continued growth in UK house prices, we doubt ourselves just a little bit more.

I mean, David Kerns sounds old enough to have analysed more than the current recession, and he has his finger on the pulse of the shocking employment figures the same as we do, but he truly thinks the housing market is past its worst, strongly enough to base currency dealing decisions on it.

That said, as Kerns admitted in the interview: housing is not crucial to making forex calculations at the moment, because all the other data is and will keep Sterling low, and things like rising unemployment and quantitative easing need to be stopped before Sterling can really grow. So he has no reason to analyse the housing market at the same lengths as we have and will continue to.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

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FT Index Shows UK House Prices Still Rising but Recovery is Vulnerable

by Liam Bailey 9. October 2009 13:37

The Financial Times index, one of the most impartial and arguably most accurate indices of UK house prices recorded a 0.6% increase in house prices in September. UK house prices are now 5.6% lower than they were at this time last year, and at similar levels to August 2006.

The FT index is compiled by Acadametrics, which said that this, the fifth consecutive monthly rise in house prices clearly indicates a recovery, but that things could still turnaround at any minute. Peter Williams, chairman of Acadametrics said:

“Consumer confidence is recovering and there are indications that mortgage supply has stabilised and might increase along with the number of properties coming to market and the transactions that follow. However, all this is delicately balanced. The government and the Bank must continue to make the right calls to avoid disrupting this fragile recovery and it is simply too soon to say the course going forward is set.”

The Acadametrics/FT index is a good one to follow, because it is not based on mortgage approvals like those of Nationwide and Halifax, it is based on actual transactions recorded in the Land Registry, but it is better than the Land Registry index because it continually adds the most recent sales recorded at the Registry, and the index is constantly updated with the changes.

For that reason, we can look at this and say that the Land Registry index for September will show prices rising again after the fall in August. I have been saying since the Land Registry index came out in August that it wasn't a blip, it was the start of the second dip, bla bla bla. Looks like I was wrong.

However, with unemployment still rising, the mortgage market still heavily restricted and supply alone holding up a market in which first time buyers still can't afford to buy, I still think a second dip is inevitable in the short term.

Like this post, Subscribe to our feed. If you want to sell your house while prices are rising, do so with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

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House Prices Continue to Rise Despite Land Registry Recording August Fall

by RichardM 7. October 2009 11:13

The Halifax released the figures from its house price index in September and said that house prices had risen 1.7% on the month leaving them7.4% lower than this time last year. The news came just a few days after Nationwide released their September figures of a 0.9% rise on the month, and the average house price now back to what it was last September. The Land Registry however, recently revealed their figures for August, in which they said house prices had fallen 0.1% on the month, but that the rate of annual decline had slowed.

The Land Registry index only covers England and Wales, but as its prices come from completed sales, whereas the Nationwide and Halifax are based on mortgage approvals, the Land Registry is agreed to be the most accurate.

However, because the Land Registry is behind the other indices, analysts (which means just about the whole country) are wondering whether the Land Registry's drop in prices was just a blip against the run of rises; 5 consecutive months according to Nationwide, and 3 consecutive according to Halifax.

I was quoted in an article yesterday on Write About Property, i gave the following advice to potential sellers:

"Prices have fallen drastically on UK property there is no question about that. Nor is there any question about the fact that it will likely be 2-5 years before houses regain the value they held in the beginning of 2007.

"However, all houses have fallen in value, so you will save on your next home what you lost on the sale of your old one. But now, if you sell your house to first time buyers, you can take solace in the fact that, yes, you lost money but you did so voluntarily to help a first time buyer get onto the property ladder."

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Nationwide index for September, House Prices Back up to 2008 Levels

by RichardM 3. October 2009 15:08

Nationwide issued its house price index for September yesterday. It showed that house prices rose on average 0.9% between August and September. The tri-monthly measure, which is less volatile and widely regarded as the more accurate short term indicator rose from a growth of 3.3% in the 3 months ending August, to a growth of 3.8% in the 3 months ending September.

This is the fifth monthly rise recorded by the Nationwide, and the lender now has the average UK house price at the same as it was in September last year -- before the catastrophic collapse of Lehman Brothers.

None the less, this still does not signal the end of the crisis, because -- as even Nationwide acknowledge -- transactions are still far too low to support such growth, leaving it based solely on the drastic shortage of housing supply.

Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist said:

"The further increase in house prices is very much consistent with improvements in a broad range of economic and financial indicators over the last few months, all of which suggest that the most intense phase of the recession and financial crisis has probably passed. However, given that the housing market still faces considerable headwinds in the form of high unemployment, restrictive credit conditions and an impending withdrawal of the stamp duty holiday, it would be surprising to see house prices continuing to increase at the very strong rate seen in recent months."

But as we continue to say, house prices make no difference to people who want to sell their house, because you will save what you lose on the house you buy, which will also have lost value. Sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

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UK House Prices, Where will they Stop Nobody Knows

by RichardM 26. September 2009 10:00

You may have read my comments that I made on Write About Property yesterday, on predicting the future of UK house prices.

In it, I agreed with the author of the post Liam Bailey's opinion, that UK house prices still haven't stopped falling, there is still too many things capable of pulling prices down: constricted mortgage market, unemployment and foreclosures are the big three, but there is also vendor realism and negative equity affecting thousands.

When I was talking to Liam he told me about a new article he is planning to write, based on a survey of landlords about their forecasts for UK house prices. So far, of the responses he has received so far, many of the UK's buy to let landlords think that house prices have some way to fall yet, with forecasts ranging from next Easter to 2014 for when the recovery will start.

Of course if you listen to the industry bulls the recovery is well underway. As Liam covered, the major indices certainly support this view; all of them are showing house prices rising on a monthly basis for most of this year, and according to Nationwide prices are now just 2.1% lower than they were a year ago.

Here at Zungalow, we don't really care what house prices do because it should never stop people from selling their house. This is because -- as we have pointed out in previous posts -- all house prices are falling. So, while your house will sell for less, you can buy your next house for less as well, and end up coming out of the deal exactly the same financially.

Zungalow allows you to sell your house for £29 per year, at that price can you afford not to give it a go with Zungalow.

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Private Property Sellers Can Benefit from Valuing their Own Properties

by RichardM 13. August 2009 16:41

The Little House Company, has unveiled a new paid-for service to allow private property sellers to gain detailed information about a property so that they can reach the best possible valuation.

As people continue to be disappointed with the length of time their property has been on the market for, more and more people are advertising their properties on private property sales sites like Little House and Zungalow, and adding a clause to their estate agents' contract so that they pay no fee if their private efforts sell the property.

Doing this makes their estate agent work harder and also gives them a better chance of selling their property in a timely fashion.

The biggest challenge to a timely house sale is an inaccurate valuation. During high times estate agents have admitted inflating house prices to make more money, and in the current (low times) climate estate agents have been known to inflate valuations to gain instructions.

That said; it is a good idea to conduct your own valuation, even if you have an agent value and then make a judgement based on all the information to hand. This is a good idea whether you plan to sell your house privately or not.

If you do not want to pay for the ability to do your own valuation, here is how you can do it for free:

 

  1. Put your postcode into the Land Registry's index page
    This will tell you how much houses in your area are selling for
  2. Use Nationwide's House Price Calculator
    This allows you to enter the value of your house at previous valuations to calculate how much it is worth now.
  3. Take the two figures and apply a little common sense to reach your sale price
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Estate Agents Upping Fees at Wrong Time - Sell House Yourself and Save

by RichardM 12. June 2009 19:13

The downturn in the housing market has made estate agents less flexible about the rates, with many now sticking firm to the 2.5% ceiling.

During the boom, and even normal conditions in the housing market, sellers are able to shop around and barter with estate agents bringing their fees down to 0.5% - 1%.

Empathising with the estate agents it is fair enough, with fewer instructions it makes sense that they would try to charge more money for the instructions that they do get -- estate agents gotta eat too right.

But for sellers this is unacceptable. Millions of UK homeowners are currently in negative equity, and millions more are unable to market their property because they would not get enough for it to pay off the mortgage and buy the house they desire moving into.

For anyone on the borderline of either of those two situations, being able to knock a couple of grand off the estate agent's fee could make a big difference.

Of course the alternative, as we are not shy about saying is to sell your home without the estate agent through a private property sales portal like Zungalow.com, which allows private house sellers to advertise their home for £29 per year.

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