Buy to let is Back comes the headline in the Landlord and BTL blog at Property Hawk, after the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors revealed a 2% increase in the number of surveyors that reported an increase rather than a fall in buy-to-let demand in the three months to September.

This follows a report last week from the Association of Residential Lettings Agents, which said that buy to let landlords were buying again, after it found an increase in the average number of properties they own.

The RICS report would seem to confirm ARLA's conclusion, until you dig a little deeper:

The RICS housing market survey -- the subject of the Property Hawk post -- has found a 2% increase in demand for buy to let property in the 3 months ending September. This is not the same as an increase in sales, or rather an increase in buying.

Another thing is the fact that ARLA recorded that landlords owned an average of 6.4 properties in Mar, increasing to 7.5 in June, and then decreasing again to 7.0 in the 3months to September -- the period that RICS said demand had risen.

Out of the 2, the better data comes from RICS. This is because if you look at the ARLA survey, in June when it said landlords owned an average 6.4 properties, it said that 375 people had answered the question. In June, when the average ownership increased to 7.5, 428 people had answered the question, and in September when average ownership was down again to 7.0, 363 people had answered the question.

It could be that the increased number in June made the survey more accurate, or it could be that most of the additional 53 people who answered owned substantially more than 7 properties and that pushed up the figure, we just don't know. As everyone who has ever studied anything knows, when you want to determine a change in one variable, all other variables must be kept constant throughout the series.

Thus ARLA's data is inherently unreliable. However, as approximately the same number of people answered in Mar and September, we can assume that the average number of properties owned by buy to let landlords increased from 6.4 to 7.0 between March and September. However, as was well covered in this article, this could be because of the spree on auction buying earlier in the year, though there were substantial numbers of new investors buying at those auctions according to reports.

Like I said, the more accurate data comes from RICS, if RICS say that demand from buy to let'ters increased in the three months to September then it more than likely did. I say this partly because it goes with what I know from outside sources, the recent price rises has optimists believing that the market has bottomed and they are getting out there looking for bargains. However, most of the bargains are currently still to be found at auctions, which are not covered by the RICS survey.

If anyone knows of a comprehensive source of information on auction sales, and the prevalence of buy to let landlords purchasing at auction please post it here in the comments. Until then, we just have to go with what we have, which is enough to suggest but not to irrefutably confirm that buy to let landlords are actively beginning to look at increasing their portfolio.

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The Halifax released the figures from its house price index in September and said that house prices had risen 1.7% on the month leaving them7.4% lower than this time last year. The news came just a few days after Nationwide released their September figures of a 0.9% rise on the month, and the average house price now back to what it was last September. The Land Registry however, recently revealed their figures for August, in which they said house prices had fallen 0.1% on the month, but that the rate of annual decline had slowed.

The Land Registry index only covers England and Wales, but as its prices come from completed sales, whereas the Nationwide and Halifax are based on mortgage approvals, the Land Registry is agreed to be the most accurate.

However, because the Land Registry is behind the other indices, analysts (which means just about the whole country) are wondering whether the Land Registry's drop in prices was just a blip against the run of rises; 5 consecutive months according to Nationwide, and 3 consecutive according to Halifax.

I was quoted in an article yesterday on Write About Property, i gave the following advice to potential sellers:

"Prices have fallen drastically on UK property there is no question about that. Nor is there any question about the fact that it will likely be 2-5 years before houses regain the value they held in the beginning of 2007.

"However, all houses have fallen in value, so you will save on your next home what you lost on the sale of your old one. But now, if you sell your house to first time buyers, you can take solace in the fact that, yes, you lost money but you did so voluntarily to help a first time buyer get onto the property ladder."

As you may know, house prices fell in August according to the Land Registry index. Mortgage approvals also fell in August. We have warned for some time on this blog that the price rises we were seeing in the past few months did not represent a bottom in the market, and now it looks like we are finally going to be proved right.

The house price rise was easy to brush aside, because we knew it was based on short-supply in only a few areas. However, the rising mortgage approvals growing month on month and even showing massive hikes on last year's figure was hard to argue with -- even though the rises still left mortgage approvals a lot lower than you would expect to find in a market where prices are rising.

Now, the reality that we are facing is this: The Land Registry says prices fell in August, but its index is lagged by 2-3 months. That means that house prices were struggling even when mortgage approvals were rising.

Now that things are heading south again we say: buckle up, this is the start of the second dip we have been forecasting for some time, and we are in for some pretty sharp house price reductions in the coming months.

This doesn't mean that you can't sell your house. As we have said on this blog before, all houses are falling in value, so by the time you sell your house at a reduced price, and buy your new house at a similarly reduced price, you will be in about the same boat as you would in 2007.

Property investment consultancy Assetz have slammed the forecast that UK house prices would fall 9.8% by the end of this year made by the Confederation of British Industry.

Stuart Law, chief executive of Assetz, said: "The CBI’s house price forecast is illogical and cannot possibly be based on justifiable calculations.

"All the major house price indices are now showing consistent month-on-month growth and Assetz House Price Watch, which is based upon the UK’s main five indices, is now showing that house prices are over 1.5% higher than in January this year.

"It would be virtually impossible for house prices to fall by almost 10% in the three months to the end of December and it is hard to imagine how the CBI arrived at this figure, which implies a greater rate of fall than was witnessed even in the state of panic last year.

"More worrying is the fact that this prediction is clearly at odds with the CBI’s own view in their release that the economy as a whole is gradually improving. Random sound bites such as these are unhelpful in this sensitive market which is beginning to find its feet."

Assetz are a bit wrong in their own facts. Yes, all the main indices are currently showing month-on-month and even tri-monthly growth, but there is not only 3 months left. The three most current indices, namely Halifax, Nationwide and the Financial Times are up to the end of August, giving them 4 more monthly releases to end the year. The indices of the Land Registry and the (government) Department of Communities and Local Government, are only up to the end of July, giving them 5 monthly releases to go.

Falls of 2% or more now when -- as Assetz rightly pointed out -- the economy is showing signs of recovery, look highly unlikely. But even though the economic outlook is a lot brighter, unemployment is still rising, foreclosures are still happening, and we aren't out of the woods yet. In fact, house prices are only rising because of big rises in 11% of the country were supply of quality homes is extremely short, prices are still falling everywhere else. If foreclosures should mass or something else should cause supply to increase in those areas, then house price falls will restart anew and 1.6% per month could happen, though even I have to admit it is unlikely.

Liam Bailey is a well known commentator on global property markets, and the director of SEO copywriting services company Write About Property.

It has been revealed that Halifax's valuing system for mortgages is leading to people paying higher rates because their properties are being undervalued.

The Times broke the story on the Halifax undervaluing property by up to £35,000, which potentially adds £12,000 to the cost of a mortgage.

The article featured the story of Simon Lord, 49, an estate agent, and his wife Katherine, 44, from Bath.

The couple came to the end of their mortgage with Halifax in July, and their house was automatically valued. The Halifax valuation, based on its index said that the Lord's had 25% equity in their house.

Unhappy with the figure, the Lord's paid £1,000 for Halifax’s own surveyor, Colleys, to visit their property for a physical valuation. This turned out to be 35.6% higher, at more than £1m, giving them the 60% equity required for the top deals.

“We would have had to acquiesce to a far less favourable mortgage if we’d accepted Halifax’s initial valuation,” said Lord.

Halifax said it updates its index every quarter for valuation purposes. This penalises home owners when prices are rising, though benefits them in a falling market. A spokeswoman said: “We’re confident that we have a robust process in place.”

This story adds even more weight to the advice we have been giving for several months now, people need to be carrying out their own valuations, even if they are using the services of an estate agent. This way they will know if someone is either undervaluing or overvaluing their house.

Find out how to value your own house in our How to Sell Your House guide.

In August, the average UK house price was £112 higher than in December 2008, meaning that house prices have now regained anything the lost in the falls of the first quarter, according to the latest release of the Halifax house price index.

The average price of a UK house was 0.8% higher in August than in July. This was the second consecutive monthly rise recorded by the Halifax, and the fourth rise in the last 8 months. The rise brought the tri-monthly measure (widely regarded as the more-accurate because it is less volatile) to a rise of 1.7%, and the annual measure to a fall of 10.1% -- the lowest since July 2008.

"Demand for housing has increased since the start of the year due to better affordability and low interest rates. This, together with low levels of property available for sale, has boosted house prices over the last few months," said Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis.

With every month that house prices continue to rise, confidence builds and more and more people are willing to put their voice behind this being the start of a slow and painful recovery in UK house prices.

Whether it is or not; find out how you can do just as well in a down market as you can during boom times.

The UK housing market has bottomed, price falls have finished, and price growth, though slow will return next year. That is according to a survey of 30 analysts conducted by Reuters, who said that prices will end the year slightly lower than they started it, grow by 0.5% next year, and 2.5% the year after.

The UK is absolutely obsessed by house prices, but it is all much of a much-ness; if you have the right attitude you can do just as well out of the current housing market as you could in 2006.

There are people who are refusing to sell their houses because they won't get the peak price for it, even if they bought the house years before and could still make a profit at a 30% discount on peak, they are sitting on it, depressing and waiting for better days.

The fact of the matter is, house prices are relative. That is to say, all houses are falling in value, so by the time you sell up, remortgage and buy the bigger house your family needs, you will end up paying the same amount in mortgage repayments as you would at the peak in 2007.

Because, while you would have got a lot more for your house then, the bigger house would have been a lot more expensive also, and vice versa, now, the bigger house is a lot cheaper. And the same goes for people who want to downsize; yes, they lose out on the sale, but the smaller house will also be cheaper and they will come away with the same amount (approximately) left over.

So, in answer to the question: is now the time to sell your house? Yes, now is the time to sell your house, because it is no different to any other time.

I was interviewed for online property publication Write About Property yesterday, to see whether I thought now was a good time to be selling UK property. The title kinda gives away my answer; Now is the Time to Sell Your House, C'Mon Quick.

I'll tell you what I told them:

If you have a good property in a good area, now is the time to sell, and I mean right now. Short supply is driving up prices and you may even get close to peak value if you can get your property onto the market before supply of like-for-likes increases in your area, before everyone catches on if you like.

So how quickly can you get your property on the market, with Zungalow you can do it in 10 mins. You're thinking, but ah, first you need to get your home information pack. That's true, but Zungalow allows you to put your property on the site to show it off, neither for sale or rent, and for free. Then you will be shopping around not only to find the best price for your HIP, but also the company with the quickest delivery time.

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The Land Registry has just released its data on UK house prices in July.

Not surprisingly in the current climate, the Land Registry too has recorded an increase on a monthly basis, in fact the largest increase since 2004 of 1.7%. This has brought the annual rate of decline down to 11.7%.

The Land Registry house price index is widely regarded as the most accurate record of house prices in England and Wales, is showing the annual decline still much faster than the 6.2% recorded by Nationwide last month.

The Land Registry index also showed that there were on average 35,348 property transactions per month between February and May, just over half the 61,743 recorded per month in the same period last year.

As transactions had already plummeted last year, this proves beyond a shadow of a doubt (as far as I'm concerned) that the reason behind the price rises of the moment is not increased transactions because of low interest rates, as Nationwide said yesterday, but the low supplies of saleable stock. (See yesterday's post on the Nationwide index for August).

This article that I have just read in The Times is about the best example I've seen so far to show the topsy-turvy world of the current UK housing market.

The article is on how now is the time to sell your house because you stand a good chance of getting a good price, because low-stock levels mean little competition from other sellers. But it is also noted in the article that if supply increases massively it will likely drive prices down yet again.

So if everyone follows the advice of those in the article, then everyone will be knackered for getting a good price. The irony could be that, by printing this article The Times have given the game away.

We have been warning on this blog for many months now, that a rapid increase in supply would be detrimental to the future of UK house prices, and how the currently positive news threatened to make that a reality. However, it does seem that there have been a few shrewd people who have timed it just right in their area and got an extremely good price for their house.

If you do decide to follow the advice of the Times interviewees and check out housing supply and get started about selling your house, Zungalow offers a fantastic property advertising package for just £29 per year. Such a low price perhaps takes the risk out of sticking your toe into the house selling water.