The UK housing market is "past the worst" according to foreign exchange company Moneycorp. In an interview with Write About Property, David Kerns, dealing manager in the Moneycorp private division, said:

"Housing, data at the moment would certainly confirm that the UK housing sector is, certainly past its worst, and we've seen about 5-6 months now of growth in UK housing."

His statements come just days after the government index run by the Department of Communities and Local Government came out showing a 0.5% increase on the month of August, and a 2.7% increase on the quarter.

The interviewer, Liam Bailey was silent for the first time in nearly the whole interview. This is because, Liam believes like we do here at Zungalow that there is a second dip on the horizon for UK house prices.

That is, we did believe it, but every time an index that we trust; an index with no commercial interest in creating positive sentiment comes out showing continued growth in UK house prices, we doubt ourselves just a little bit more.

I mean, David Kerns sounds old enough to have analysed more than the current recession, and he has his finger on the pulse of the shocking employment figures the same as we do, but he truly thinks the housing market is past its worst, strongly enough to base currency dealing decisions on it.

That said, as Kerns admitted in the interview: housing is not crucial to making forex calculations at the moment, because all the other data is and will keep Sterling low, and things like rising unemployment and quantitative easing need to be stopped before Sterling can really grow. So he has no reason to analyse the housing market at the same lengths as we have and will continue to.

As we always say, though we love to follow house prices, they really are not all that important. Firstly the national average is very rarely found on any British street or area, and secondly all houses are falling in value so in most cases the money you lose in selling you will gain in buying.

So, why not give it a go while the going's good; sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

Nationwide issued its house price index for September yesterday. It showed that house prices rose on average 0.9% between August and September. The tri-monthly measure, which is less volatile and widely regarded as the more accurate short term indicator rose from a growth of 3.3% in the 3 months ending August, to a growth of 3.8% in the 3 months ending September.

This is the fifth monthly rise recorded by the Nationwide, and the lender now has the average UK house price at the same as it was in September last year -- before the catastrophic collapse of Lehman Brothers.

None the less, this still does not signal the end of the crisis, because -- as even Nationwide acknowledge -- transactions are still far too low to support such growth, leaving it based solely on the drastic shortage of housing supply.

Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist said:

"The further increase in house prices is very much consistent with improvements in a broad range of economic and financial indicators over the last few months, all of which suggest that the most intense phase of the recession and financial crisis has probably passed. However, given that the housing market still faces considerable headwinds in the form of high unemployment, restrictive credit conditions and an impending withdrawal of the stamp duty holiday, it would be surprising to see house prices continuing to increase at the very strong rate seen in recent months."

But as we continue to say, house prices make no difference to people who want to sell their house, because you will save what you lose on the house you buy, which will also have lost value. Sell your house with Zungalow for just £29 per year.

In August, the average UK house price was £112 higher than in December 2008, meaning that house prices have now regained anything the lost in the falls of the first quarter, according to the latest release of the Halifax house price index.

The average price of a UK house was 0.8% higher in August than in July. This was the second consecutive monthly rise recorded by the Halifax, and the fourth rise in the last 8 months. The rise brought the tri-monthly measure (widely regarded as the more-accurate because it is less volatile) to a rise of 1.7%, and the annual measure to a fall of 10.1% -- the lowest since July 2008.

"Demand for housing has increased since the start of the year due to better affordability and low interest rates. This, together with low levels of property available for sale, has boosted house prices over the last few months," said Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis.

With every month that house prices continue to rise, confidence builds and more and more people are willing to put their voice behind this being the start of a slow and painful recovery in UK house prices.

Whether it is or not; find out how you can do just as well in a down market as you can during boom times.

The UK housing market has bottomed, price falls have finished, and price growth, though slow will return next year. That is according to a survey of 30 analysts conducted by Reuters, who said that prices will end the year slightly lower than they started it, grow by 0.5% next year, and 2.5% the year after.

The UK is absolutely obsessed by house prices, but it is all much of a much-ness; if you have the right attitude you can do just as well out of the current housing market as you could in 2006.

There are people who are refusing to sell their houses because they won't get the peak price for it, even if they bought the house years before and could still make a profit at a 30% discount on peak, they are sitting on it, depressing and waiting for better days.

The fact of the matter is, house prices are relative. That is to say, all houses are falling in value, so by the time you sell up, remortgage and buy the bigger house your family needs, you will end up paying the same amount in mortgage repayments as you would at the peak in 2007.

Because, while you would have got a lot more for your house then, the bigger house would have been a lot more expensive also, and vice versa, now, the bigger house is a lot cheaper. And the same goes for people who want to downsize; yes, they lose out on the sale, but the smaller house will also be cheaper and they will come away with the same amount (approximately) left over.

So, in answer to the question: is now the time to sell your house? Yes, now is the time to sell your house, because it is no different to any other time.

By Liam Bailey

Right, so let me start at the beginning.

Firstly, I believe that, though the collapse of the global financial infrastructure was the catalyst, that this house price correction is like any other in the fact that it has gone the way it has because homes became overvalued and unaffordable for first time buyers.

Some people believe that house prices will fall until the average house price is 3.8 times the average salary. I am not one of those people. I believe that this correction will go much the same way as the last correction (late 80s early 90s) and overshoot the long-term averages on the way down.

House prices have been rising for the past few months. The rises are not a true reflection of the market. Short-supply of quality homes in certain areas is causing those properties that are available to be sold for prices similar to those seen at the 2007 peak, and these sales, in a measure of low transaction volumes are enough to distort the overall picture.

Prices are still falling in most places. And they will continue to do so until transaction volumes pick up, so the true question is, when will transaction volumes pick up. There are three hurdles keeping transaction levels down.

1. The Economy/Unemployment

   Though there have been signs lately that we are past the worst of the recession, unemployment is still rising, and is expected to continue doing so for quite some time yet. Until less people are in fear of their jobs or already jobless there won't be sufficient demand for a revival in transaction volumes.

2. Mortgage availability:

   Banks are still under pressure to improve their balance sheets which means making more money from fewer loans. To consumers this means poor deals are on offer to anone who has less than a quarter of the house price to put down as a deposit, and the best deals go to those with deposits of 40% or more

3. Vendor Realism:

   It is a fact that short supply is driving up prices in some areas. But across the UK out of the homes that are for sale, a high percentage of those homes are at prices similar to those seen at peak. Thus, actual saleable stock, that is houses that people will actually buy is short across the country. The correction can't end until the gap between what buyers are willing to pay, and sellers willing to accept closes. This can't happen until more vendors are realistic about the market.

They are three major problems, but for me, the first is the key to recovery in the housing market. But I don't just mean an end to the UK recession and unemployment:

When the global economy has recovered, and stock markets and investments around the world are once again lucrative, when UK consumers are spending and borrowing healthily again, the banks will be making money sufficient that tight mortgage policies are not the only way to improve their balance sheets.

That will take care of number 1, and as a result better mortgages will become available to the masses, which will take care of number 2. This will then result in number 3 resolving itself, because demand will begin to increase and vendors will realise that it is only their price that is preventing the sale.

But as this is a forecast, what you really want to know then is, when do I think the global recovery will happen?

As I said, there are clear signs that the UK is past the worst of the recession, and there are similar signs that the recessionary down-track is passed and we are currently on the way back up, things like: GDP contractions of a lot less than previous quarters, retail sales up (in the EU), Europe's biggest two economies emerging from recession, and more.

I think that the global recovery will be strong in Q3 of next year, and that UK unemployment will also have turned around by this point. It will take time for this to change the attitudes of consumers and the banks, but banks should be more relaxed about their lending, and demand to buy property will start to increase by Q2 2011.

I therefore think that the UK housing market will bottom between quarters 2 and 3 of 2011. Unlike other commentators I think that price growth will be quite brisk in the subsequent few years.

Liam Bailey is a well known property commentator and director of sector specialist SEO copywriting company Write About Property, which provides SEO copywriting services for some of the biggest names in the property industry.

I was interviewed for online property publication Write About Property yesterday, to see whether I thought now was a good time to be selling UK property. The title kinda gives away my answer; Now is the Time to Sell Your House, C'Mon Quick.

I'll tell you what I told them:

If you have a good property in a good area, now is the time to sell, and I mean right now. Short supply is driving up prices and you may even get close to peak value if you can get your property onto the market before supply of like-for-likes increases in your area, before everyone catches on if you like.

So how quickly can you get your property on the market, with Zungalow you can do it in 10 mins. You're thinking, but ah, first you need to get your home information pack. That's true, but Zungalow allows you to put your property on the site to show it off, neither for sale or rent, and for free. Then you will be shopping around not only to find the best price for your HIP, but also the company with the quickest delivery time.

Once you have your HIP, simply pay the £29 up your membership to silver, add pictures and mark your house for sale. Click here to find out how to value your property online for free.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors has said that UK house prices will not fall by 10% this year, as they had earlier forecast, but we now look set for house prices to end this year slightly higher than last year.

RICS have also said that mortgage approvals, which have been rising for several months will level off at about 55,000 per month -- still historically low and not enough to bring substantial or prolonged upward pressure on prices.

What is putting upward pressure on prices in the current climate, RICS say is the fact that new instructions are at an all time low, having fallen for 26 consecutive months. RICS said that this, along with continually rising unemployment and economic contraction to make the current minor upturn very fragile indeed.

In fact the underlying sentiment of the RICS housing market sentiment was as the headline said: outlook improving but housing market not out of woods yet. In other words, yes it's great that prices are rising now but with the economic outlook still so negative there is likely to be a second dip.

Commenting, RICS senior economist Brigid O’Leary said:

"There has been a clear change in the housing market over the past few months and, as a result, it is unlikely that we will now see the kind of house price falls widely predicted at the start of the year. Instead, the return of buyer demand and the limited availability of housing on the market could be enough to support prices so it wouldn’t be surprising to actually see prices increase further from here in the short term. That would be consistent with more positive expectations that have been reported in recent RICS Housing Market Surveys.

"However, the outlook for 2010 is fairly uncertain and there is a real risk that prices may slip back again. Affordability is still stretched and mortgage finance, while improving, is fairly hard to come by. The positive news we have seen has been a recovery from record lows and there are still many uncertainties in the economy. In particular, we are concerned about the mortgage finance environment and the impact of further increases in unemployment on house prices."

The Government house price index has confirmed that UK house prices are indeed falling a lot slower.

According to the Department of Communities and Local Government house prices fell just 0.1% in May, slowing the annual decline from 13.0% in April, to 12.5% in May. The quarterly index also showed a massive slowdown in the rate of decline: in the three months ending May, house prices fell just 0.4%, having fallen 4.8% in the previous three months.

All the major indices have now shown that the rate in decline of UK house prices is slowing. However no impartial analyst is saying that we are at the bottom of the market. This slowing rate of decline is based on activity rising slightly from very low levels, which is combining with the fact that supply is very low at the moment to put upward pressure on prices.

If you want to know how much activity has risen we can look at the British Bankers Association figures on mortgages for house purchase. In April house purchase loans were 29.7% lower than in April last year when they were already falling, however in May they were only 1.5% lower than in a year ago, suggesting that this may turn positive very soon.

If house purchase loans do indeed reach a bottom and start growing this will be a very positive sign for the UK housing market. That is because, though the house price rises could easily be turned around if supply increases faster than demand, that would not necessarily cause activity to decrease rapidly. Activity may well continue to rise gradually, and when the wider economy recovers the increased activity should lead to the real bottom in house prices and that start of a slow recovery in UK house prices.

As we all know, there is currently a lot of positive news in the housing market, with prices rising on a monthly basis for some months now according to some indices, by 2% since April according to the Halifax and Nationwide, and all indices including that of the government showing the rate of decline having slowed massively.

But as we all also know, this current reversal of the downward trend has not been caused by a massive upsurge in activity like you would expect if the market had bottomed, but is in fact based on a marginal increase in activity, which has acted in conjunction with a massive supply short-fall to put upward pressure on prices.

The trouble with that is, if supply increases faster than demand, the upward pressure on prices will evaporate and we will likely be in for further sharp declines as the actors putting downward pressure on prices, like the restricted mortgage market and soaring unemployment, are able to take their full effect.

Such a scenario would seem likely; as the positive news could well make the thousands of people holding their property off the market think that now is the time to go for the sell. With that threat seemingly hanging over us guillotine-like, it is easy to focus so completely on it to become blinded to any other possible outcome.

But is the positive news likely to make the holders sell now? When you think about it calmly the answer is no, not really; these people don't want to sell because of the losses they face on their property, the 2% increase barely bites into the 20% loss we have seen so far.

On the other hand: who wants to buy a house if it is going to lose even 10% of its value within a year, let alone the 40% falls some analysts were predicting a few months back? So it is surely equally possible that the currently positive news -- that has made even the likes of BOE guy say that the worst of the price falls are over -- would bring more buyers into play?

If the number of buyers was to increase greatly, faster than supply increases, which is possible if not likely, then this will increase the upward pressure on prices and accelerate the price rises and slow the rate of decline faster.

In this scenario, this continuation of price growth would indeed see supply levels start to increase, and this would be the beginnings of a sustained recovery in the housing market. The recovery started by shockingly low supply, well it's got to start somewhere.

Of course there are three very big problems, namely:

1. Unemployment is currently massive and still rising
2. Banks are still being very cautious about who they lend to (especially who they lend 125%LTV to)
3. Vendors still are not being realistic about their asking prices, according to Rightmove's latest index the average asking price of new additions to the site is 40% higher than the average Land Registry sale price. This is worsening the supply shortage

Sure, they are three problems, each capable of preventing my scenario from becoming a reality, not to mention the fact that with supply so short too many buyers may not be able to find a home suitable for them. The truth is no one can say with any certainty what is going to happen next. Time will tell.

The Rightmove UK house price index for May 2009 has revealed that asking price rose 2.4%, the biggest increase since 2003, while the number of new properties coming to the market was lower than any May since 2003 at just 61,000.

This is the fourth consecutive monthly rise in asking prices the portal has revealed, and some are viewing it very positively. I however, am not.

The rising asking prices combined with the low in new properties coming to the market shows that vendor realism is still abysmal, and that people are still staying away from selling in a down market.

I will never view Rightmove's index showing a rise in asking prices, until the market has verifiably bottomed some time before.

The first time Rightmove's index shows a fall in asking prices, or at least asking prices levelling out, then I will think that vendor realism is obviously increasing and we will be getting closer to seeing the market bottom.

In the meantime, private sales sites still offer the chance to sell quickly without having to drop as far as the market demands, because they allow you to market to a wider audience, and you can levy the savings on estate agents fees against any reduction in price.

Zungalow.com is a private property sales site with a twist; the social media site of private property sales offers sellers the chance to market their property casually for just £29 per year.